Capital Flows
Some charts worth paying attention too
Explanation on EQR is simply range movements(reflexive energy), no difference in direction, its simply the amount of energy (price exertion) in a given run, its a point of reference into the future if trend continuance is absorbed, price has exhaustion points it can only move so far before it takes a break.
ES currently has 2 hits on 6143.1) Oct 22 L broke 4330 H that MM gave 5352 2) DT 4635 Jul 23 the MM gives Target 6143. Whiteboxes - The current range 18 Feb - Mar 20 L is still playing on. The current one is off the Oct 23 L which hits 6143 as well.
Capital flows in this index is not broad in fact very thin as essentially the Mag 7 have propelled the index, this is potentially a bubble but may have a bit to run, being at highs, profits are taken and its where they move which is important, the flow bias indicates its still indexes,the 60/40 is not being supported, debt expansion,rate cuts,and devaluation of USD are propping indexes for now.
DJI Weekly
The bellweather has moved in a consistent trend since OCT 22 its hit EQR and is consolidating highside after its 20ema support test no major rebalance of capital evident on this TF.Retest of 20ema is holding.
Russel Index RTY
Attempting 2022 H’s RZ is heavy resistance,its lagging the other indexes and hasnt really popped,but has turned previous resistance to support on LTF. A break above 2500 previous H will attract some attention and rebalancing may occur out of other indexes,narratives relate to this and it looks ready to push, but remember caution here as it has been a very thin movement on the markets,there hasn’t been a healthy distribution across sectors because its fiscally not well.
NIKKEI Weekly
With the shakeout and rebound in play these are always danger zones,the rebound formed a confirmed triple so EQR still in play.back in lowside of emas squeeze looking at 55 to hold here for upside continuation,it needs capital to move so focus here is on BoJ an interest rate lift will further support Yen which could bring offshore into Yen and park up in the Nikkei for awhile.
Softs - There is a couple to follow this is futures and ETF baskets
LTF H&S breaking 2017 H ,Looking for resistance 70.49 to be tested means prices are going up, this has major impacts on economies as we are all aware of now.While it may be good for Balance of Trade for makers selling to takers the internal inflation affects expenditure.
DJCIGC - Dow Jones Commodity Index Gold primary weight with other commods.
This has outperformed the indexes since OCT 23 L’s,the breakout 719 after the 20ema retest signalled upside,a 20 retest again has seen another major breakout.Target is 1000, support now 854. The upside is capital moving into commods,after the 719 breakout its consolidated for sometime and signalling upside
TLT 20+ Treasury Bond ETF
If capital is going to spin into bonds the TLT is the most liquid bond ETF.After being slaughtered,it appears to be consolidating emas cross incoming to the upside is probable as it has finally held above the 55 and broken the 98.76 level. Currently it could still print a DT here,but a breakup here will signal capital moving in which is a bet a recession is incoming as this is a hedge instrument.
DXY Weekly
100.85 being tested again, what is suggesting further continuation to downside is this time it has broken the 200ema,2 previous drops the 200 supported now its acting as resistance nothing else here of importance the 200 is key.If it moves into mid 90’s here it will trigger rebalancing, this is the chart under the pump now and holds the most importance in my view.
JPYUSD Weekly
The weaponisation here is pressuring the USD. Geonomics are heating up with the positioning in the G7 and no bueno for Nippon Steel in the US its decision time.They have been warned and can clearly see what becomes of allies some in Europe have shown them,big decisions ahead is all part of survival.
Double bottom confirmed.Testing RZ emas cross incoming 81 weeks in the making.
Continuation here will see .00700-.007500 level tested the 200 will be epic.Note previous rebounds are between 90-100% longpull moves.If it plays its catastrophic for the rest of the basket
