Cheers -Nothing to See Here

Time for the pub to sit this one out

Heres to inflation —Cheers

It will be realised in time that a reset of an economy requires the governance to enact fiscal restraint, the treasuries and central bank to play in tune and most importantly fellow trading partners to share the load, a rebalancing needs to occur and its a very thin plank on which all players stand.Above all this, lies communication its a two way street that now is a oneway road. We have exited the roundabout

Admitting that restarting a nuclear economy that ground to a halt during covid was way out of one countries league,it was a severe missed opportunity,instead of using the school of globalisation to restart, egocentricity took over with a thinking that some competitors could be taken out as they would have to be in a worse position.

The world quickly split in two and new trade allegiances where formed at speed, The takers still think they are in control through the use of force and ignoring global institutions in place to keep humanity safe, now all know its smoke and mirrors as the economic war continues.The deeper they slide the more leviathan they become and the more control they attempt to enact on all at all levels.The finality is the lack of common sense as the rhetoric that started has not changed.

The economic winds are like mother nature and eventually will not be tamed, Britain is a prime example millions marching on a Saturday is nice, but useless, its not until its a working day that stops the cogs of economic power that will get the attention of the s/elected. I think we are at a pivot point and people benevolent to a system are seeing that its mechanically misfiring, the reliance on media,statistics,and people they relied on is now being digested /questioned. Its the hip pocket nerve and what is to become of my children that is what matters now and its a growing concern globally.

Their are far better authors than I on geoeconomics with far deeper research but know this” governance always goes to far its ego”.Ego (power) once unleashed consumes humanities soul thats the greed we as humans have all suffered and will suffer it again.Geopolitically we are changing forever,no reversing here, statements of countries recently against foes are resonating and being galvanised,the time for talking has sadly passed and sides have been taken that cant be unwound.Rhetorical replies on tariffs and sanctions are the last throw of the dice,its easy to look good against smaller adversaries but we are up to the level playing field now,thats when shit becomes real and action speals louder than words. The sound of silence is dawning and the takers know it. Think back 12 months when experts warned China was falling,first property then the banking system,then the manufacturing,here we are and now China has got to big for the US and its trading partners and we need to reign them in.What happened to the catastrophy that was going to rock the markets.China is about to record the largest trade deficit in history closing out 1tn USD. The problem is that not one cent of that will return to the west.They are investing with friendly partners,priming the BRI and moving into to emerging nations.

Japan banks where failing 12 months ago, the population was aging ,the property was collapsing can you see a pattern, attacking another maker but this one is the liquidity maker, remember one month ago BoJ pivots in words that they will raise rates and estimated 6tn gets unwound on the Yen trade. What all the experts failed to state is the unwind is paying back the Yen loans but why ruin a good story as to why a US stock index fell. Appears to be propped by offshore debt.

Russia leads Europe economically and has just surpassed Japans economy and is at war with the US and EU, that is some economic management.The rhetoric from EU was they where going to carve up Russian resources,the US was to take over Ukranian land (the Euro food bowl).12 months on and its still the same carnage.Russia was removed from Swift and the USD but still expanding still trading how? Simple takers still need makers.

Germany and its compliant population took to the green agenda and wanted a better environment for themselves,24 months on and the manufacturing heart of Europe dosent have the energy to hold its base, but thats okay they will move to the US and China leaving a decimated base on which the EU lent on in times of need.But its ok Draghi has risen again with a plan to spill debt evenly throughout EU participants so those with no fiscal brain can continue while those who have one will be burdened with there debt, you simply cant make this stuff up. I assume we wont be hearing much about Brexit now, if implemented (sic) they made the right call or knew the call was incoming!

Enough ranting its tailwing time: China has made a large policy shift in global bamking they have released the banks to trade in currency removing the work from the Central Bank so it can focus on expansion and leave the banking sector to hedge the currency. Read that again because they are weaponised to play currencies now rumours of a 100bn short in the making on USD could enact a treasury selloff of there holdings.We are at the real end of sanctions now.The makers vs takers.So the top 4 banks in the world are entering the arena

Banks by TOTAL ASSETS on hand not MCAP which is meaningless

Turkey a NATO member and holder of a large part of soldiers is joining the Brics in October, the EU is paying the price for buggering them up on joining and Turkey see the writing on the wall and are positioning for the future.This will have serious consequences geopolitically. But we all knew this when they attempted the coup that wasnt!

The House of Saudi has traded oil for Yuan since June its reported,with the US rhetoric on using the USD coming out from both parties last week it cant be having that big an impact so soon, or could it?

Asian countries one by one are stating that the hegemony is now done and time to reflect on the way forward, this is all aligning with the most important meeting this year in Kazan and actually who attends, that will be the signal of where the world is heading and who each side is. Its apparent from the US that they dont 100% know who is in or out here, I think Kazan is a meeting they dont want to go ahead, they have passed off the BRICS to there own detriment and its surrounded the backyard.

Hopefully common sense will eventually prevail and the world will become a safer place,unfortunately too many have an influence in the narratives for now and it isnt until the people reclaim the rights that things will change.The hip pockets need to be prodded a bit more, we are nearly there and thats the greatest thing they fear,peasants revolted against the kings that held the lands and the crowns are attempting it again.

Markets: The crack up will continue,whats worth watching is the capital flows 6tn internal in US isnt going all to bonds this time,that trade is gone when they drop rates this is more important than the experts carry trade tripe that exploded.The economic game is treasuries and the dollar , the trap was set and Yellen short termed the debt ,it needs to be rolled over and they cant afford the higher rate,the otherside will attempt to deval the dollar and create an inflationary move thats the economic war at play, while they still stand the global economic outlook is under them,many are on the move and many are willing to move,its where they move thats important. A tell will be the narrative of capital controls, one defence is to limit the movement of capital. US invest in US and EU invest in EU,when this point is reached it will have a savage impact internally on these economies. But for those who have followed for the last few years it will be of no surprise. When the rulers cant attain the yield offshore they turn to there own, always the way it ends.

Sytrinnian

Will gat back to the charts,the above if it plays out over the next few months will have a bearing on most markets