Geopolitics has been in turbo mode for 23 months and no signs of diminishing, constant fuel is being added to the fire, with every move the US is making there is a counter, unfortunately too many know the history at the top and little is known by the masses of people who attempt to better themselves everyday, if they knew the actual control they where under it would be a very different place.If they knew that certain countries where in fact attempting to break the core foundations imposed by global governance and its trade laws that sustain its power which is to “do unto others as they see fit”. Unfortunately for humanity its now moved to war and at this stage its just defenceless people that are being sacrificed.Governing powers have bypassed the international boundaries of law,principles and human rights.
Commentators of these times reflect on previous era’s, attempting to form a narrative to explain the present, others subject race,religion,and governance as a reasoning for what they see, they simply ignore what is before them, they ignore the past that will discredit there present.The tools they use are vast and the use is exponential, the labour required is immense, the capital requirements are enormous.All this expenditure requires payment to those who run the agenda’s via narratives.Its capital required at every level there is no corner left untouched by capital. It’s the oxygen in which it breaths which makes it the ultimate target.
It takes many micro events to form a macro event, too many pieces being overthought can create to many bypasses, these bypasses are a weapon to form narratives for the agenda’s of governance both political and monetary. A countries currency is priced (valued) by market forces, narratives can be used to manipulate its value, Central Bankers use this tool ad nauseam, we at at the point of Netflix Bankster’s the series, and through binge watching they attempt to talk currency high because of imports,they know they need to maintain value to lessen price inflation. Its best to not watch.
The movement of capital is the key and market force determines its destination, this liquidity is the powerhouse of the global economy, for a longtime it was controlled by the US and fellow partners,its architecture (control platforms) regulated and licensed had the whole world plugged in the ultimate P2P. To de dollarize away from the overlords a decade of work has been underway in creating the architecture to replace the current system, slowly as its moved out of beta testing it gains ground, the new designers had decades of history to peruse in which to perfect it, essentially a system in which multi lateral trade can transact divorced of political interactions and above it all foreign policy decrees. This geofence placed around a countries sovereignty was the key principle of its design, non interference. The gateway is simple you enter an agreement and deliver the obligation.
NDB a new World bank was established primarily to allow emerging nations to seek capital to expand there economies, a new mercantile exchange is developing for the trade of commodities, new currency exchanges C2C - country to country using a privacy based SIPS network to avoid Swift. Macro statistics on trade will never reflect reality now, trade has moved here and keeps increasing, Swift now dosen’t capture what it was designed to do, the governance of this system continues to fail.
Dedollarisation has many micro parts but the narrative is not reality, the pressure on the hegemonic is far greater and isn’t its non use in trade its actually where the use goes to, this is what effects banking and certain banking continents are being bypassed with there own currency and there debt markets, as makers no longer invest in the debt takers offer, bypassing the system creates less liquidity held and effects fractionalisation as deposits and long term investment is removed. Certain countries whose trade balance with another country not in surplus could offer dollars instead of their currency, the dollars could then be used to payoff dollar denominated debt, in return they receive commodities ( a form of dedollarising). Makers using a multi currency system of trade could help emerging countries who need to obtain dollars to payback loans, or as the new system expands be used to recapitalise existing debt from USD to there own currency, bypassing IMF and World Bank.
Another force is the holdings of US debt whereby the interest owed is paid in USD, makers taking on USD debt and being paid interest that raise money in their own currency and get the CB to purchase the debt paying a zero coupon rate and then with the free money receive huge interest payments generated by the debtors tax base until that is stretched, then more debt is raised to pay their interest.Once a part of another’s countries tax base has been locked in, careful and precise economic management internally to not hinder the economy with inflation and lower the currency price by 25-30% without creating a monetary inflation environment,then allows interest payments to swap back and buy more of the sovereign currency. Not only are they receiving 3X av. the rate offshore they then pick up +10% av. more on swap. Dedollarising the tax base internally. By keeping the inflation rate low and raising wages maintaining any hit on household economies the profit brought back has exponential purchasing power within social and infrastructure spending.
Makers (exporters) have placed the imbalance back into infrastructure,primary being energy, without energy you cant expand to competitive levels, energy expansion has occurred in the same time frame as the new monetary system (Nothing to see here).The new system was a hedge against the future weaponisation both in currency and trade sanctions. Before Sips,NDB,and C2C, weaponisation of currency had no reply.
Sanctions work both ways as that system allows retaliation.This again is another form of dedollarisation. With the takers now feeling the effects they have shown the hand they can play, now the rest of the players at the table can see, to protect the sovereignty they have a new system in which to turn. The turning is dedollarisation.
Unfortunately much has been written on oil agreement with KSA -Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, this is the narrative being rerun, original agreement was 5 yrs and renewed but at anytime in the last 50yrs both parties could withdraw no questions asked. The revenues of KSA went back into UST’s but this has been pulled back for as KSA built infrastructure and reinvested heavily into the refining side of the petro industry. When US dropped the rates, capital was better used internally as it was getting no return and for ‘now’ the KSA currency is pegged to the USD, so they didnt have that leverage that other makers have had. They have just begun to make changes accepting multi currencies as they emerge into the multipolar world, this also brought them dialogue with non trading partners as the largest makers sought energy supply well into the future, this has brought West Asia into a trade alignment with new transport hubs brought online to move the production. Overland corridors being built Shadow shipping fleets no longer controlled by the one insurer. Another form of dedollarisation.
The infrastructure to expand economically will yield the most capital, venturalists will capitalise emerging and commodity based countries, without the politics. Trade commerce will flow, new mercantile exchanges opening, the big end,or bellend are already positioning, they speak the narratives but they are all part of the move, they care about yield that’s the reality, all the rest is narrative. Sanctions have failed because the corps kept trading, countries that are takers cant afford to lean on them because they simply move. As one continent is finding out.
No energy - No expansion - No yield.
The fatalists in governance are just beginning to realise the social and infrastructural decline before them. Every sector is now being ripped apart and relocated and the answer tariffs on EV’s the people pay the price, neither could build the infrastructure in time to compete. Chip makers need twice the energy to catch the maker in that sector alone. No need to dive deeper its the only sector keeping their market alive.
Its been awhile since I substacked, I will keep doing them more frequently as the foundations are set. We are still in a Crack Up Boom Cycle all narratives point to peddling to an election to vote on someone who isnt there.
J.Powell “ I don’t trust the data” , visit one of the makers countries and see what your tax base has built them.
Rant by: Sytrinnian
Great read as always Syt